Aims
The aim of this project is to develop a national Theory of Change for Scotland including a shared set of activities, outcomes areas and mechanisms to achieve a Just Transition. In presenting the Just Transition Theory of Change and a proposed monitoring and evaluation framework for Scotland, the report has three overarching purposes:

1. To find alignment between the various published and unpublished Just Transition outcomes, plans and strategies for Scotland.
2. To develop a framework that can outline necessary Just Transition actions and the potential responsible partners for the Scottish Government and others.
3. To provide a convincing and research-based vision of what might work to realistically lead to a Just Transition in Scotland.

The Scottish Government continues to develop a raft of strategic and policy responses to climate change, built around their national adaptation plan Climate Ready Scotland 2019-2024 (and its successor in development at the moment). In the absence of other finalised plans, such as the final Energy Strategy and Just Transition plan and granular sectoral plans, the Just Transition is largely positioned within a policy framework that’s generic and aspirational. This report aims to fill this gap with specific, measurable outcomes for the Scottish Just Transition and to provide a framework for upcoming national, sectoral, and regional plans and evaluations, so they can reflect national priorities and share a common vocabulary.

We identify a number of policy recommendations; whilst these are primarily oriented towards the Scottish Government in some cases they are applicable to other stakeholders too. These are to:

1. Establish a permanent Just Transition Commission with analytical capacity.
2. Within the Commission’s annual work programme, permit dedicated time and space to review the Theory of Change in light of developments and learning.
3. To develop an ongoing annual cross-directorate dashboard which tracks the achievement of Just Transition outcome measures across Scotland.
4. Increase the diversity of measures used to monitor and evaluate the Just Transition.
5. To embed the collaboratively determined Just Transition framework developed in this work in future commissioned Scottish evaluations.
6. To actively facilitate policy coherence across the full suite of Scottish policy, enabling a cross-sectoral approach that acknowledges both (1) all implicated policy strands and (2) all implicated scales, from local to national.
7. To establish clear interim Just Transition targets up to 2045.
8. To coordinate policy ambition with Westminster.
9. To establish an equivalent, permanent Just Transition Commission in each devolved nation.
10. To share best practice internationally and further explore international implications and responsibilities.
11. To widely communicate the vision held for the Just Transition and the approach used.

Measuring and evaluating success in the Scottish Just Transition – Appendices to report