6th February 2025

Dear Ms Fergusson and Committee members

Thank you for inviting representatives of the Just Transition Commission to provide oral evidence on 15 January as part of your ongoing inquiry into GB Energy and the net zero transition. We were pleased to have this opportunity and will welcome any opportunity to continue this engagement further.

We are writing to share with the Committee a number our reports, some of which Richard and Ameena may have alluded to in their evidence, which are of direct relevance to the core questions within the inquiry’s terms of reference.

Annual Report 2024

This report distils some of the major insights and findings from the Commission’s work last year. The report’s key messages are split into Conditions for Success (the longer term strategic conditions required for a just transition) and Game Changers, (critical policy steps that could be meaningfully progressed over the next 18 months).

Conditions for success:

• Transformational leadership: operationalising just transition must now be a key priority.
•  Get ahead of potential jobs gaps
• Put just transition at the heart of Scotland’s climate and economic policy
• Maximise the positive social and economic impact of new physical infrastructure
• Map and manage the risk of a “postcode lottery” effect

Game changers:

• Get the delivery model in place at regional level
• A diverse future workforce for a diversified economy
• Community right to shared ownership of renewable energy developments to underpin community wealth building
• Get a firm grip on just transition investment
• Build effective co-working across four nations

The report also includes an assessment of progress towards a credible program of just transition planning and delivery for Grangemouth.

Alongside this report, the Commission have also published their M&E research “Measuring and evaluating success in the Scottish just transition”, produced by the Tavistock Institute of Human Relations and the University of Edinburgh under the Commission’s close instruction. Based on the research report, the Commission agreed a set of recommendations, including the establishment of just transition targets up to 2045.

Grangemouth

The Commission published a briefing on Grangemouth in July 2024, regarding the future of the town and its industrial site.

Key messages

• The just transition plan for Grangemouth must earn the trust of the workforce and the local community.
• The Grangemouth plan must be the first in a series of rapidly developed just transition plans for Scotland’s highest emitting sites.
• A new intergenerational social contract is needed to safeguard local young people and their community’s future.
• Grangemouth needs a new economic model that goes well beyond the refinery, leveraged to deliver enduring community benefit.

The briefing was accompanied by a research report by Dr Ewan Gibbs and Riyoko Shibe of the University of Glasgow, “The Grangemouth Refinery Closure: Workers’ Perspectives – Just Transition Commission”.

Shetland
The Commission published a briefing on Shetland in September 2024, regarding how a just transition for Shetland can be achieved.

Key messages

• Shetland demonstrates the importance of empowering local people – value can be created for communities when local democratic structures have the power, legitimacy, knowledge and capacity to negotiate and partner effectively with industry.
• Community wealth can be created when communities have the ability to own smaller scale developments and have a share in larger scale projects.
• The Scottish National Investment Bank should establish structures so communities can access project finance.
• The Scottish Government should develop, alongside industry, practical guidance that enables community ownership of revenues, supported by access to finance for local communities.
• Reserve grid capacity for community energy
• Community benefit should have standards and assurance mechanisms to demonstrate the quality of the consultation and the legitimacy of the decisions being made. Enhanced disclosure of funds allocated and governance structures ensures scrutiny and accountability with a role for oversight by local and national authorities.
• Consistent and equitable compensatory mechanisms need to be developed for those whose livelihoods are directly impinged upon by infrastructure development and other changes required for Net Zero.

The briefing was accompanied by a research report by Lerwick-based energy consultancy Voar, “Shetland, Community Benefit, and the Energy Transition” – Just Transition Commission.

Engagement between Scottish Government and UK Government

As noted during the Committee session, the transition in Scotland involves a number of critical interdependencies with the UK Government and there are several policies which are reserved to the UK Government, which will impact on Scotland’s just transition success and the UK’s own decarbonisation plans, so cooperation is essential.

The Commission will shortly write to the Scottish Government following a ministerial request to identify key areas and issues in this regard, and we will share this letter with you once issued.

We would also refer you to a report being published by Systemiq next month with the working title ‘A rapid, orderly and just transition of the UK Continental Shelf’. We expect the findings in this report will be useful to your inquiry.

Yours sincerely,

Dave Reay and Satwat Rehman

Co-Chairs Just Transition Commission