It’s not too late to make Grangemouth a green success story, but governments of all levels need to work together with the appropriate urgency and strategic nous, write Satwat Rehman and Dave Reay, co-chairs of the Just Transition Commission.

There are encouraging early signs that Holyrood and Westminster may be at the beginning of a new phase of working more closely together on the tough challenges that most concern people. One of the hardest, now and over the coming years, will be how best to support people and communities through the big changes underway as we decarbonise our economy.

Done right, we turn a daunting problem into a generational opportunity for economic and social renewal, starting with Grangemouth, described by Keir Starmer as a “real priority” last week.

Today, as co-chairs of Scotland’s Just Transition Commission, we have written to Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and Scotland Secretary Ian Murray, welcoming what we hope will be a genuine strategic reset that will enable much faster progress towards a just transition for workers and communities across the country. We also sent our report on Grangemouth’s future, which we are launching in the town this morning.

The Just Transition Commission is an independent expert advisory group with members drawn from business, industry, trade unions, environmental and community groups, and academia. We aim to make sure the benefits and burdens of the major changes involved in Scotland’s net-zero transition are shared fairly.

A just transition for Grangemouth needs to retain jobs, but also go further and deeper if it is to deliver a truly sustainable future for the town. Our report sets out what that should look like.

We now need to see real ambition and tangible actions that earn the trust of people in Grangemouth and everyone whose livelihood is tied to the site. The move away from high-carbon assets is something that has been clearly anticipated for some time given long-term trends.

A place of invention and enterprise

We expect UK and Scottish governments to take an active role in anticipating these changes and shaping them in a socially positive way. It will only be truly just if the new industrial model in Grangemouth provides a future for local young people and brings meaningful benefits to the community.

Why does the future of Grangemouth matter so much? The town’s industrial cluster sits at the heart of our energy system and economy and has been a place of enterprise, invention and energy for centuries.

Iron founding, coal mining and the shale oil industry strongly moulded the local labour market into the early decades of the 20th century. The refinery opened in 1924, at the time under Scottish Oils Ltd, a subsidiary of what became BP. It sold the industrial site, including the refinery and chemicals plant, to Ineos in 2005. Today the refinery plays a leading role in supplying Scotland’s fuel demand and the industrial cluster hosts over 2,000 full-time equivalent jobs, with thousands more spread across the supply chain, extending across central Scotland as well as the oil depot at Finnart.

Grangemouth also has an out-sized carbon footprint, accounting for around 6 per cent of Scotland’s net greenhouse-gas emissions in 2017. The energy transition is underway and operations at Grangemouth will inevitably change.

An industrial litmus test

The question of how these changes can be managed most effectively is especially stark at Grangemouth, since so many livelihoods are linked to the operations of a privately owned company and foreign state-owned enterprise.

The future of Grangemouth represents a litmus test for Scotland’s pioneering approach to just transition planning and delivery. We simply cannot afford any repeat of the unmanaged transitions in coal and steel, as the Commission warned in November when the intention to close the Grangemouth refinery in 2025 was announced.

Success will require new commitments and new ways of working together among key players: national and local governments, industry, business, workers and community.

Jobs alone won’t guarantee a fair future. The current picture in Grangemouth shows this clearly, illustrating the kinds of local needs that the energy transition should be shaped to address.

Effective action needed

The population is in decline, down 5.6 per cent over ten years. Five areas within the town are in the most deprived 20 per cent, according to the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Average household income is significantly lower than in neighbouring Falkirk and over a quarter of residents are categorised as income deprived.

Thirty-five per cent of people in Grangemouth have no qualifications, much higher than the Scottish average. Without effective action to support the community in a consistent and substantial way, Grangemouth could become a byword for the failure of government to effectively manage industrial change towards the green economy, just as countless towns and villages have declined following closures in coal and steel.

Education, training and skills need to be a core part of plans to safeguard communities like Grangemouth which currently rely on high-carbon activity, with a clear link to emerging industries and technologies.

Skilled workers could be lost

Our college sector has an absolutely vital role to play. We saw at Forth Valley College how educators of remarkable dedication and expertise are working flat out on shrinking and unstable budgets to make sure our young people are skilled-up with the kind of knowledge and experience that is highly sought-after on the global market as countries embrace new ways of working.

Listening to workers at the industrial site, we found a strong desire to make sure theirs isn’t the last generation in the region that benefits from the training and employment opportunities that Grangemouth has sustained over decades. There’s a real risk Scotland could lose the skilled workers we simply cannot do without if we are to make a go of the huge amount of work that we know needs doing.

As a Commission, we don’t believe these changes can be delivered by the market alone. Nor do we believe it’s already too late to make Grangemouth a green success story. If all levels of government work together with appropriate urgency and strategic nous, making the best use of all available leverage to deliver for workers and their communities, we can start building a fair future for Grangemouth right now.

The full article features in The Scotsman on the 18th July 2024